I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 Senate race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber. Below, you’ll find our ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 House race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber. Below, you’ll find our ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 gubernatorial race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and a chart showing which party will govern more Americans after the midterms.4 ...

The forecast has been relatively stable since the beginning of October. Still, Democrats’ odds of retaking the House and Senate have hit new highs over the past few days. The party’s lead on our ...

Mr. Irrelevant” has the NFL’s highest QBERT rating so far this season. It’s time to stop holding his draft position against ...

Can Democrats still win the Senate if the polls overestimate them? And how ugly could the map get for Republicans if the ...

Republicans might hold on to one or two of the toss-up Senate races, but the tide will be too strong to resist elsewhere. At ...